Canada After Trudeau by Patrick Levy
It’s the beginning of the end for Justin Trudeau. The Conservatives are riding high, the Liberals are scrambling in retreat, and the NDP under Jagmeet Singh is still trying to figure out what is going on.
But this is only the current state of affairs. Like the old saying goes “this too shall pass.” What will happen for the Conservatives when the music stops, and they have to make an honest pitch to lead the nation? How will the Liberal Party regroup in an increasingly more apparent Trudeau-less future? And perhaps by some miracle, will the NDP finally figure out how to sway disgruntled left-wing voters?
Right now, in Conservative circles, it’s hard to hear anything else except a cacophony of champagne corks popping and crystal flutes clinking. The Liberals have scored on their own net in the third period, and there’s a lot to celebrate. Andrew Scheer has also successfully been able to keep the puck in the Liberals’ zone while Trudeau’s team dukes it out among themselves. Sure, the chaos from cabinet members resigning to the vote against Jody Wilson-Raybould testifying makes it appear that Scheer is all but assured a victory by merely sitting on the sidelines. But we need to remember that the game is not over yet and the Conservatives cannot become complacent with their modest lead. There is still over six months before the election, and in politics, that can feel like a lifetime.
Trudeau’s approval rating is irreparable with nearly two-thirds of Canadians saying he has “lost the moral authority to govern.” Moreover, even a core component (25%) of Liberal voters believe Trudeau should resign, and an overwhelming majority (73%) of Liberals think the RCMP should carry out an investigation into the Prime Minister’s alleged crimes. In other words, Trudeau is toast. Liberals are thus faced with two choices: either stick with Trudeau only to have their Party suffer a humiliating defeat in a general election or act now, while there is still time, to replace Trudeau.
One way or another, Justin is gone. But no one is willing to ask the most pertinent question: “Who will be the next leader of the Liberal Party?” It may seem inappropriately premature to discuss succession at this moment with Trudeau still hanging on as Prime Minister; almost like divvying up Grandma’s jewelry with your cousins while she’s still alive knitting in the living room. But in politics much like in a family, even if we never talk about it, everyone is well-aware no one is immortal, and there are always plans for the future. Leaders come and go, and for Liberals, scandals are nothing new. Perhaps better than any other political party, Liberals know how to survive blatant corruption charges and re-brand themselves in ways that voters forget why we ever broke-up in the first place.
After discussing the issue with political strategist Louis-Charles Fortier, I agree with him that the heir to the Liberal throne is right in front of us: Jody Wilson-Raybould.
When compared to Trudeau, Scheer and Singh, Jody Wilson-Raybould has the highest approval rating (45%) among Canadians. Not only is she incredibly popular across the political spectrum, but her name is also synonymous with honesty and virtue.
Headlines across the country applaud her bravery and courageousness for quitting her prestigious job to embark on a holy crusade to “speak truth to power.” One only needs to follow the explosion of #StandWithJody on social media to see that she is in the process of being canonized as the latest Canadian saint. She stands for integrity and morality. Who better than the whistleblower behind the SNC Lavalin scandal to absolve the Liberal Party of its sins and reassure voters that it’s safe to vote Liberal once again?
In their short-sighted quest to take down Trudeau, even the Conservatives are elevating Wilson-Raybould on a pedestal as a paragon of virtue in their latest #LetHerSpeak campaign. This approach, however, should be cautiously handled as a double-edged sword. Yes, it may serve Scheer’s purposes now to praise Wilson-Raybould as a benevolent truth-teller. But what will happen when she “speaks her truth” about Andrew Scheer and he cannot question the veracity of the most honest person in Canada?
There are no guarantees who the next Liberal leader will be, especially after the Party chose a substitute drama teacher to take the reins of power. However, the election of Justin Trudeau did reconfirm a powerful factor in modern politics that the Liberals will never forget. After failing to win elections with cerebral candidates such as Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, the Liberal Party took note of Obama’s success in the US and realized voters understand “change” more in terms of the candidates’ appearance rather than their ideas. This tactic proved to be successful when the Liberal Party won the 2015 election with their relatively youthful and handsome leader. However, the Liberals failed to create their Canadian Obama with Justin Trudeau. As it turns out, running a campaign does require the showmanship of an actor. But once in office, the charm of Justin’s “sunny ways” quickly wore off and in the cut-throat business of global politics, Trudeau struggled to be taken seriously as a world leader.
With Jody Wilson-Raybould, on the other hand, voters do not have to worry about Trudeau’s clownish gaffes anymore. She is a former BC crown prosecutor, Treaty Commissioner and Regional Chief of the BC Assembly of First Nations and of course, former Minister of Justice and Attorney General. She definitely has an impressive résumé by any measure, but in comparison to Trudeau, she might as well as be an astronaut, concert violinist and Olympic powerlifter.
More superficially but also perhaps more importantly, she is the most intersectional contender for the Liberal leadership. If Canadians feel an undeserved sense of pride in having a young, good-looking drama teacher represent the nation on the world stage, the country’s self-righteousness will go through the roof when it overcomes a major corruption scandal by electing its first female and indigenous Prime Minister. It’s all but guaranteed that Jody Wilson-Raybould will win the Nobel Peace Prize the moment she walks into 24 Sussex Drive. The media bonanza of Jody-mania will surely culminate into an Oscar-winning movie.
To paraphrase Nietzsche, the most simplistic analysis, the one apparent at first glance, is sometimes the most accurate. I have seen commentators in the media examine this drama in terms of judicial independence, partisan favouritism and even as a battle of the sexes. However, there is much broader as well as more obvious theme playing out before our very eyes: the struggle for power. When viewed through this lens, Trudeau did not demote Jody Wilson-Raybould to Veteran’s Affairs solely because he wanted to shield his Liberal cronies from prosecution. He was also sending a clear message about insubordination to a cunning minister whom he rightfully perceived as a threat. Indeed, politics is and has always been a Machiavellian blood sport. Even though Canadians refuse to question Wilson-Raybould’s motives for betraying Trudeau, in a normal context, it is reasonable to assume that she stabbed her boss in the back to seize power for herself. History, as well as common sense, indicate that Wilson-Raybould did not launch this mutinous insurrection against the Prime Minister just because her ambitions end with her innocent desire to prosecute an engineering firm for bribing Libyans.
Don’t take it from me, listen to Jody’s father. In 1983 on national television, hereditary indigenous chief Bill Wilson told Pierre Elliot Trudeau that Jody aimed to be a lawyer and eventually Prime Minister one day. Will this prophecy come true? Only time will tell.
As of now, Justin’s fate is all but inevitable. But Jody is not going anywhere.
