Why Trudeau’s Latest Bind Might Not be a Good Thing

As a strategist, I frequently see the parallels between chess and politics, how the roles of the pieces are repeated in the political class, and how the same tactics are used to disarm an opponent. When I analyze a politician, I’m reminded of a quote by Vladimir Kramnik, “I am convinced the way one plays chess always reflects the player’s personality. If something defines his character, then it will also define his way of playing.”

With SNC-Lavalin in the news, it appears more and more that Trudeau’s ‘Sunny Ways’ are simply ‘Business as Usual’ for the Liberal Party. The Canadian public has a shockingly high tolerance for broken promises and bad moves. From walking back on campaign-friendly issues such as transparency and electoral reform, to a brush with #metoo, and now, a charge of strong-arm tactics against an independent body, Canadian seemingly wake each morning to a new gambit hitting the headlines.

However, I began to see the chess board: How many months do we have until the next election? Why did she come out with this now and not when she was first demoted? Where are the pieces? How does this set up the game? What are the possible outcomes?

Conservatives will want to attack, but it is my opinion that they need to think at least three moves ahead. I don’t believe the timing was random. I don’t believe the resignations and speaking out are merely collateral damage or ass-covering. I do believe we are seeing a well-planned attack from within.

After the post-Martin turmoil within the Liberal Party, many were willing to coalesce behind the Trudeau brand to form a government. The ‘Sunny Ways’ brand appeared to be a re-launch of the Liberal Party, and it appealed to Canadians’ classic sense of self-description: we’re nice.  It wasn’t long, though, before Trudeau’s character was influencing his playing style and the party was left playing defence, sacrificing pawns and castling their king. It was inevitable that someone within the party would start thinking of alternatives.

If we calculate the traction the SNC-Lavalin issue has plus the months until the next federal election (theoretically October), we can see that this would be an excellent time for a quick leadership race, should Trudeau be convinced, or forced, to step aside. Jody Wilson-Raybould is riding high on her hero credit and has stated that she intends to run for re-election as a Liberal. How many people would vote for Wilson-Raybould for Prime Minister and hand a freshly-washed Liberal Party a majority government?

The consequences for the opposition parties would be staggering. Now is not the time to make rash moves. It is the time for deliberate action focusing on the end-game, and it may not yet be time to topple the king.